- President Biden’s support of Israel’s war in Gaza isn’t popular with younger voters
- 72% of registered voters age 18-29 disapprove of Biden’s handling of the war, according to a new poll.
- Trump holds a 6-point lead over Biden among registered voters in the demographic.
Young Americans were a key coalition that powered President Joe Biden to office, but a new poll shows that so many are so disgusted with the president’s handling of Israel’s Gaza war that they are prepared to vote for former President Donald Trump.
According to a New York Times/Siena College poll released on Tuesday, 72% of registered voters age 18-29 disapprove of Biden’s handling of the conflict.
Even more concerning for the White House, if the election were held today Trump would hold a 6-point lead over Biden among registered voters in the demographic.
In July, a similar poll found Biden leading with the group by 10 points. In comparison, a 2020 exit poll had Biden winning the group by 21 percentage points. Exit polls are imperfect, but losing major support among young voters could doom Biden’s reelection bid.
Still, like every other age group young voters say the economy and inflation are the two most important issues facing the country.
If the election were held today, the poll shows that a rematch between the two men would be extremely close. Trump has a 2-percentage point lead among registered voters. While Biden holds a 2-point lead among likely voters. If you look at just registered voters who voted in 2020, Biden holds a six-point lead. But among those who didn’t vote last time, Trump leads by 22 points.
It’s worth taking any poll about the 2024 general election with the historical hindsight of knowing that the race can change massively. Despite that possibility, the Times/Siena poll confirms that Biden’s decision to largely back up Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in his nation’s retaliation against Hamas after the terrorist group killed some 1,200 people has come with major political consequences. In recent days, Biden has warned Israel even more to be cautious of civilian casualties.
The larger sample also shows that Biden is in a difficult spot in trying to figure out a path forward. Overall, 44% of voters say Israel should stop its military campaign to protect against civilian casualties. But in an almost equal number, 39% of respondents say Israel shouldn’t change course even if more civilian casualties occur. There is a larger divide on supplying more aid to Israel, 54% of voters would back additional economic and military assistance compared to 38% that would oppose it.
The generational divides are very stark.
Voters age 65 and older sympathize with Israel more than Palestinians by a nearly 6 to 1 margin. That level of support slowly decreases among each age group until it reaches young Americans. A near majority of registered voters age 18 to 29 (46%) sympathize more with Palestinians.
The Times/Siena College poll of 1,016 registered voters was conducted from December 10 to the 14th. The margin of error for the overall sample is +/- 3.5 percentage points. The margin of error increases for smaller subsamples.
